Third man in Greenford: no information is available. Possibly an assassin from Silehard, possibly Alistair Garcilaso's boatswain, possibly someone completely different. The only mention of him is the soldier's report that he tried to steal a little boat and was found in possession of the idol, presumably taken from Giraldo Figuiera.
According to the part of "Danielle_dialog.h" where she's reading Raoul Rheims' diary, Giraldo was Raoul's navigator.
From "Alistair Garcilaso_dialog.h":
The reason that Giraldo had the idol, if Danielle is to be believed, is that she gave it to him. There is no evidence that he was involved in taking it from the Sirena in the first place.
Putting all that together, Danielle killed Alistair's boatswain before she went to Alistair and forced him to give her the idol. At some point she gave it to Giraldo, with whom she may have been having an affair according to Greenford tavern keeper Simon Hanpool:She later returned to Greenford to retrieve the idol and possibly found that someone else (the third man) had got there first. Perhaps the third man killed Giraldo and took the idol, only to then be arrested; meanwhile Danielle walked in on the crime scene, got blood on her boots, was also arrested, and subsequently escaped. Or perhaps the third man was Giraldo's new accomplice, to whom he gave the idol; then Danielle arrived, got angry, and killed Giraldo; then both Danielle and the third man were arrested, and Danielle escaped.
This seems possible if the murdered boatswain was separate from Giraldo. At first, I thought the two were the same - Giraldo was Rheims' navigator but caught malaria and had to be left on either Greenford or Quebradas Costillas (where Rheims moored for repairs), and possibly later he enlisted in Alistair's fleet and joined the attack on the
Sirena, taking the idol for himself and settling back in Greenford. Then at some point he got in an affair with Danielle, and probably slept in the same house. Then one night an attacker (likely Silehard's agent) kills Giraldo for the idol, runs off to a nearby boat with it, with Danielle waking up to find the murdered Giraldo, wetting her boots with his blood.
I think there's reason to suspect that Danielle was not responsible for Giraldo's murder. If she was the one that killed Giraldo, and took the idol from him, the third guy would certainly not have ran off with it, since Danielle was a competent fighter. He'd have to kill her for it or die trying. It's possible that he killed Giraldo while he was sleeping, and sneaked out of his house secretly. The only thing we'd have to guess is whether Giraldo and Alistair's boatswain are the same person.
I know it's possible that Danielle was the one that gave it to Giraldo, going by her dialog. But she's not really a reliable source since at one point in the game she claims to have sold her ship for one of the clay tablets and at the next moment says both of them were stolen. Quite confusing.
In any case, there's apparently no clear hint as to what the developers had in mind.
There is no evidence that Raoul was ever in command of anything, let alone the biggest ship in the English fleet.
Well, he did have a ship I believe, since some unused dialog files indicate he was tasked to find out the treasure by Silehard early on and had to stop by Quebradas Costillas for repairs after a storm. This, alongside Ewan's rumor of a "powerful frigate" with a captain receiving secret orders from Silehard, led me to entertain the possibility that he was given charge of the manowar. Then again, that does sound overkill for what appears to be a normal mercenary captain.
The invasion video is the French fleet attacking Oxbay. There were no ships defending, certainly not Belette, which was capable of sinking the Black Pearl without having to use the glowy thing and could probably have stopped the whole invasion by itself if it had been there. The clip showing gunports opening is obviously made up and not based on any game ship, none of which have moving gunports.
Upon analyzing the video angles, it seems to me that the big ship was indeed fighting the French fleet.
Here we have the big ship preparing to fire at its port side:
This ship is headed towards the same direction
Victory is facing - opposite to where the French ships are headed. So it doesn't look like part of the French fleet. Maybe it came from Oxbay.
Here's a fleet of ships in the next shot, presumably the French ships, receiving fire from their port side.
Oxbay appears to be on their starboard/right side, so it couldn't have been the fort firing on them. It's either an English warship from the port side, or the big ship in the previous shot.
And the Oxbay fort is indeed on their starboard - it wouldn't have been the one firing them, as the cannon fire was coming from the port side. Furthermore, the narrator states, "the French ships caught the fort's gun crews
napping...."
So, it appears from this scene that there was something firing on the fleet, and it wasn't the fort. It would have been an English ship, and considering that the big ship from the previous shot is shown firing at the place where the fleet would have been, it's most likely the one attacking them. Since it has three gun decks, maybe it's the
Belette, but then again it does look just a little different from it...
So, it could be just a generic battleship, or perhaps an entirely different ship type not encountered in the game, like a 2nd rate. If it's
Belette, maybe she couldn't aim well enough, or was called to Redmond on urgent orders, or was too slow to stop the invasion. Whatever the case, the British had one big ship, which failed to defend the town.
Hmm. Maybe I'm overthinking all this. Though I certainly had fun doing these speculations.
But the real problem is that you're trying to piece together parts of a storyline which was rushed (Nathaniel's), plus fragments of a storyline which was barely started (Danielle's), and come up with a coherent overall story when there probably isn't one.
True...paradoxically, it makes everything more interesting now that I'm forced to do all the detective guesswork.
I had also this little idea for the Build Mod, where on Sea Dog/Swashbuckler difficulty on the Nathaniel storyline you actually encounter an invading squadron after leaving the port and have to escape instead of the video showing up...I know this is gonna require a lot of work so I'm just content with it as a fantasy.