I did talk to the merchant. That's how I find out whether he has anything worth stealing - no point in risking a reputation loss and an encounter with the Guild unless there's some good stuff to be had. Besides, I remember that warning from before, so even if I'm just mugging him as an experiment I always talk first to initialise his equipment list. In fact, this wasn't even the first time I'd talked to that guy - I'd previously been to Guadeloupe, and a few other places besides, in search of the "Advanced Blocking" book.You probably didn't talk to the merchant yet and therefore he didn't have an item tree generated.
So you could exit the location despite the danger icon still flashing?
That is not supposed to be possible! How did you do your merchant-mugging? Thief's Knife or something else?
Yes, the danger icon was flashing, and I escaped into the store before whoever was presenting the danger showed up. Then I reloaded the savegame, mugged the guy again, and this time went round to see who the Guild had sent - a load of soldiers in blue uniforms. I did it once in the port at Kingston, too, and the response squad there appeared to have EITC uniforms, which seemed reasonable. There being no handy store into which to run, I fought it out with them - I think I had the assistance of Sgt. Sharpe at the time. Plenty of free weapons after that. (Incidentally, the blue-coats in Point a Pitre were not the same as those in Kingston. Possibly some French merchant company? Or possibly marines. I don't think they were the same as the army guards, but I didn't survive that fight so I didn't get to check in detail.)
I always use non-lethal mugging, either thief's knife or cobblestone.
Yes, I'm using the 11th March update. I'll maybe try some more experiments, using lethal means, and see what it does to reputation, nation relations and exit routes.