Grey Roger,
I wasn't using "player choice" as itself a reason for change obviously, I was responding to the impassioned speeches in the first page of this thread about how changing the default for a configurable setting would be the death of all player choice, and the cries of "let people have the freedom to play as they wish!"
So the point is the player choice argument doesn't counsel anything at all when it comes to configurable defaults. We could put anything in there and player choice is preserved. So the goal is to pick the best default setting with balance in mind, and doing anything here can never be anti player choice.
My response to your great points regarding my proposal:
A) if we want luck to continue functioning in its current role in the game as a sort of magical influence on the world, I agree, luck is the most appropriate skill.
B) if we want luck to gradually transition to a dedicated sneak skill, then we should change this skill to defense (EDIT or melee actually, I like that idea better). It is realistic actually. You don't have to dodge a bullet, perhaps the person notices someone about to fire, and reduces their profile by turning a bit to the side, darting in one direction, etc. People aware of people shooting at them can certainly make themselves harder to hit, and that is a skill. As a multiplier to armor coverage it is a bit strange (and from a game balance perspective as well, as I argued earlier), but it can be understood as the player protecting their exposed parts or turning to get the bullet to be more likely deflected from the armor rather than hit it head on and thus penetrate it.
Anyway, I had thought B would fit the long term plan from reading some older planning threads regarding luck and sneak. But I've got no particular concern for either result--defense and luck probably don't go more than a couple of points away from each other, so gameplay there will be little difference noticed.
Purely a matter of which direction is desired for luck vs sneak long term.
EDIT: Pieter makes a good point that maybe melee is the better skill than defence. I would say melee is a better choice as well, a doctor shouldn't be better at dodging a bullet.
And dedicated fighter characters should see armor effectivness improved form their fighting experience, not from unrelated training. That actually would have a substantially positive effect on game balance, as now fighter characters would get the benefit of their higher melee scores rather than lower luck.